Insights

Odin’s Ravens and Intelligence

Driving back from a meeting today I was listening to BBC Radio 4’s Natural Histories program, this episode. The fascinating subject was ravens, including one actually talking. No kidding. But there was also a link to the world of intelligence. One aspect of the story was intriguing in particular and that is the role of two ravens in Norse history…

Drones, Cyber and IED Threats

Today we are faced with three technologies that are changing the way warfare and crime (against the state or otherwise) can be prosecuted. These technologies are related to Drones, Cyber and IEDs.

I can’t believe it’s not Buddha, either

In my last post I mentioned a Leo Tolstoy “quote”. As you will have worked out, it was completely fake. You may have also worked out that I’m a tiny bit obsessed with fakery and falsehood, or where laziness leads otherwise intelligent people to believe what they read on the internet without critical thought, as…

Intelligence Analysis, Tolstoy and Narratives

I’ve blogged before about the importance, and danger, of “narratives” in delivering intelligence analysis to consumers.  Human beings absorb narratives instinctively, and indeed I think there is a “narrative bias” – if we are told things that are part of a story, we are more inclined to believe it, and indeed if we are writing…

Conspiracy theories, Cognitive Bias and Intelligence Analysis

An intertesting article here relating to conspiracy theories and their worryingly increasing prevalence. The ease with which barking mad, crazy or just slightly twisted stories can be “broadcast” to the world worries me.   And the fact that people can easily find stories which they believe confirms their suspicions is more worrying.  There is a part…

Cognitive Bias in the Forensic Environment

This is a guest post from Donna Crossan, a recent graduate of the MSc course in forensics at Cranfield University who has recently been working at IMSL as an analyst. Why is there a lack of experimental research in cognitive bias and mitigation techniques within the forensic environment? One of the reasons research has declined…

Intelligence and Piano Tuning

Enrico Fermi was one of the last century’s greatest scientists and he created the world’s first nuclear reactor.  One of the talents of that generation of scientists and engineers, driven by necessity, was the ability to do what we in the UK call “back of the fag packet” calculations.   Of course good scientists and…