This link is meant to make intelligence analysts feel a little better about their predictive skills. If there’s a profession renowned for failure to make accurate analysis of forthcoming events, then the profession of economist come top of the class as this article describes.
As an aside, one of the authors discussed in the article is Hites Ahir. If that’s not an anagram… Sorry Mr Ahir.
Of course it is in the nature of recessions to cause fear and surprise. Which brings me to… this: