Insights

Beirut Bombing

The assassination yesterday of the senior Lebanese police intelligence officer Wissam Hassan pushes Lebanon once more towards a conflict spilling in from Syria.  Once more the tactic of a parked car full of explosives that is detonated as the target passes was used against an anti-Syrian figure. Some context here: On 14 February 2005 Rafic…

Improvised Munitions In Syria – Sublime and Ridiculous

I’m doing some work looking at global use of improvised weapon systems – beyond IEDs.   I’m seeing these all over the place, but of course at the moment mostly in Syria. I’m intrigued that all sides of the conflict are using improvised weapon systems, both Free Syrian Army, its fellow travellers and indeed Goverment Forces.…

Look into my eyes…

I’ve blogged quite a bit before about the psychology of intelligence analysts and the pitfalls, traps and opportunities that provides. But hang on a minute, what about the psychology of the consumer of intelligence?  I was talking to a guy the other day who is a stage hypnotist. He is certain that some people are…

Good quotes

I’d like us to try to collect some nice one-liners, pertaining to intelligence in the most general terms, so let me invite you to post your favourite intell related quotes in the comments below.  I’m open to a very broad interpretation of a quotes applicability to the world of intelligence.  Here’s one of my favourites…

Understanding Intelligence

This article in “The Atlantic” has some interesting remarks about how intelligence is used and highlights some comments on weaknesses in ‘knee-jerk” instant analysis. It also has some interesting comments about how analysts hedge their bets.  Some specific comments: A lot of “first contact” intelligence is wrong. I agree wholeheartedly.   In any major terrorist incident, its…

I predict we will get better at prediction

I’m not entirely sure that I agree with Roger when it comes to prediction, so here’s a piece from the opposing viewpoint. Firstly, we all make some long term predictions. We have to. We put money into the company pension fund based on a largely rational assessment of our chances of living to retirement age.…

IMSL’s latest purchase

The snack fridge. Because low blood sugar just isn’t conducive to good analysis.

A Bombing in Bulawayo

Forums dedicated to South African security contractors seeking compensation for injuries sustained in Iraq or Afghanistan have long complained of the underhand tactics they say insurance companies are using against them. Recent posts have warned about the activities of a private detective allegedly working for one of the insurance companies involved. This man is Kevin…

Land Power Coordination

There’s an interesting development reported here.   The article suggests that General Odierno has established a cell to look at better coordination of operations across the Land environment, citing lack of visibility and understanding across organizations with a stake in land warfare. I hope the cell also look at a concomitant and integrated coordination across the…